The New Zealand dollar edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Monday, climbing toward the 0.5850 mark, as a stronger-than-expected Chinese trade report offered a boost to risk-linked currencies. The move marked a modest rebound for the kiwi after a week of subdued performance amid persistent concerns about global growth and Fed rate expectations.
China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner, reported a surprise surge in exports, rising 7.2% year-on-year in March—well above analysts’ expectations for a 2.3% gain. Imports also came in stronger, up 1.5% versus forecasts for a 1.0% decline. The upbeat figures eased concerns about a slowdown in Chinese demand, which has weighed heavily on commodity-driven currencies like the NZD in recent months.
Market participants interpreted the data as a signal of stabilizing momentum in China’s manufacturing and trade sectors, adding a layer of support to risk sentiment in Asia-Pacific trading. “The positive Chinese trade numbers have created a short-term lift in risk appetite,” said a currency strategist at a Sydney-based investment bank. “That’s helping the kiwi find its footing again.”
Still, the NZD’s gains remain modest, with investors cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data due later this week. The figures are expected to shape expectations around the Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory, which remains the dominant force in FX markets. A hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI print could strengthen the dollar and limit upside for the kiwi in the near term.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is seen staying on hold in its upcoming policy meeting, with no clear signal of further tightening. That leaves the NZD largely at the mercy of external developments, particularly from China and the U.S. economy.
NZD/USD was last seen trading near 0.5847, up 0.3% on the day, with technical resistance around the 0.5860 level. Traders will be watching closely to see whether the kiwi can maintain its upward momentum or if the broader macro backdrop reins in its recovery.
