The euro rose against the U.S. dollar on Monday, moving past the 1.1250 level as investors positioned ahead of key U.S. retail sales data. The advance came amid a softer dollar tone and expectations that upcoming economic figures may add clarity to the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
EUR/USD climbed to around 1.1265, supported by renewed demand for the single currency and mild dollar weakness across major peers. Markets are closely watching Tuesday’s retail sales report, which could influence Fed rate expectations depending on whether consumer spending remains resilient or begins to soften.
The euro’s strength also reflects relatively steady economic signals out of the eurozone, with recent inflation and business activity data suggesting the region may be stabilizing after months of sluggish growth. While the European Central Bank is still expected to begin easing later this year, its cautious tone has helped support the currency in the near term.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is under pressure following a series of mixed economic releases, which have raised questions about the strength of the U.S. consumer and broader economic momentum. If retail sales underperform, it could solidify market bets on a Fed rate cut by the second half of the year, further weighing on the greenback.
Technical indicators favor further euro gains, with EUR/USD breaking above short-term resistance and momentum tilting to the upside. Still, traders remain cautious ahead of this week’s data, which includes U.S. jobless claims and PMI figures in addition to retail sales.
For now, the euro remains in demand, riding a wave of dollar softness and renewed confidence in eurozone resilience. But whether the rally holds may depend largely on whether U.S. data confirms signs of economic moderation or surprises to the upside.
