The Australian dollar remained under pressure against the New Zealand dollar on Monday, as the pair struggled to regain traction amid persistent technical weakness and diverging monetary outlooks between the two economies. The downward momentum highlights the market’s hesitance to back the Aussie, especially with the pair trading below critical moving averages.
AUD/NZD hovered near 1.0820, extending its recent slide as sellers retained control following multiple failed attempts to break above resistance. The pair continues to trade beneath its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a sign that the broader trend remains bearish despite occasional intraday rebounds.
AUD/NZD 1-D Chart as of April 14th, 2025 (Source: TradingView)
Part of the weakness stems from differing expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. While the RBA has paused rate hikes amid signs of slowing domestic inflation, the RBNZ remains more hawkish, with policymakers still voicing concern over persistent price pressures and leaving the door open for further tightening.
The New Zealand dollar also gained support from steady commodity demand and stronger trade performance, particularly in key export sectors like dairy. This has helped reinforce confidence in the kiwi even as global risk sentiment remains mixed. In contrast, soft Chinese data continues to weigh on the Aussie, given Australia’s heavy trade exposure to China.
Technical indicators remain aligned with the bearish view, with momentum oscillators showing little sign of reversal. Analysts suggest that unless the pair reclaims key levels above 1.0880, downside risks are likely to persist in the near term, especially if upcoming data favors the New Zealand side of the cross.
Traders will be watching closely for inflation reports and central bank speeches from both countries this week, which could provide fresh direction. For now, the Aussie remains on the back foot, with the kiwi continuing to benefit from relative policy strength and a more resilient economic backdrop.
