Oil prices edged lower on Monday as concerns over increased crude supplies from Iraq and Russia pressured the market. The prospect of higher output from two major producers raised worries about a potential supply glut, offsetting support from geopolitical tensions and steady global demand.
Reports indicate that Iraq plans to boost crude exports, while Russia has been ramping up shipments despite Western sanctions. Moscow has managed to maintain exports by finding alternative buyers, particularly in Asia, while Iraq is set to increase output in the coming months. The additional supply has sparked fears that the oil market could face downward pressure, especially if demand growth slows.
At the same time, investors are keeping a close watch on OPEC+ policies, as the group has worked to manage production levels to prevent excessive price volatility. While some members have pushed for tighter supply controls, others have signaled flexibility in boosting output if needed. Any unexpected shifts in OPEC+ strategy could further influence price movements in the near term.
Meanwhile, broader macroeconomic factors, including U.S. interest rate expectations and global economic trends, remain key drivers for oil markets. The Federal Reserve’s stance on monetary policy could impact crude demand, particularly if higher interest rates slow economic activity and energy consumption. Any signs of weaker growth in major economies such as China and the U.S. could amplify downside risks for oil.
From a technical perspective, key support levels around $75 per barrel are being closely watched, while resistance near $80 per barrel could limit any short-term rebound. Analysts note that supply-demand fundamentals remain fragile, and price swings could be influenced by upcoming economic data and energy market reports.
Looking ahead, traders will focus on U.S. inventory data, global demand forecasts, and geopolitical developments for further direction. While increased supplies from Iraq and Russia are weighing on sentiment, unexpected disruptions or stronger-than-expected demand could provide a floor for prices in the coming weeks.
