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AUD/USD outlook: Bearish momentum continues

James Carter
James Carter

James Carter

James is a seasoned forex trader and financial analyst with...

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James Carter

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The Australian dollar remains under pressure against the U.S. dollar, with bearish momentum persisting as global risk sentiment weakens. The AUD/USD pair continues to trade lower, reflecting investor caution amid economic uncertainties and shifting monetary policy expectations.

AUD/USD Daily Chart as of January 29, 2025
Source – FXStreet

Market participants are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates, which has strengthened the greenback while weighing on risk-sensitive currencies like the Aussie. Meanwhile, concerns over China’s economic slowdown further add to the pair’s downside risks, given Australia’s trade reliance on its largest partner. Without a clear catalyst for a rebound, AUD/USD could remain vulnerable to further declines in the near term.

The AUD/USD pair remains under bearish pressure as economic uncertainties and a strong U.S. dollar weigh on the Australian currency. Recent market sentiment has been driven by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, keeping the U.S. dollar resilient against risk-sensitive assets like the Australian dollar. Investors are closely watching macroeconomic data and central bank statements for further direction.

Technical indicators suggest that AUD/USD may struggle to regain momentum, with key resistance levels preventing significant upward movement. The pair has been trading below its 50-day moving average, reinforcing the bearish sentiment in the market. Any attempts at recovery are likely to face resistance near recent highs, limiting bullish opportunities for traders.

Fundamental factors, including China’s economic slowdown, have also contributed to the Australian dollar’s weakness. Given Australia’s reliance on commodity exports to China, weaker demand has pressured the currency further. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained a cautious stance, signaling that aggressive rate hikes may not be necessary, in contrast to the Fed’s more assertive approach.

Market participants are also monitoring U.S. inflation data, which could further influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. If inflation remains elevated, the Fed may keep interest rates higher for longer, strengthening the U.S. dollar and adding downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair. In contrast, softer inflation figures could provide some relief to the Australian dollar by dampening rate hike expectations.

From a sentiment perspective, risk appetite remains a crucial factor influencing AUD/USD price action. Geopolitical tensions and concerns over global economic growth have led investors to seek safe-haven assets, benefiting the U.S. dollar while limiting gains for riskier currencies like the Australian dollar. Until risk sentiment shifts, downside risks will likely persist.

Overall, the AUD/USD pair faces continued bearish pressure unless fundamental catalysts emerge to support the Australian dollar. Traders will remain focused on upcoming economic data, central bank policy signals, and global risk trends to gauge the next potential move. For now, selling pressure dominates, keeping the pair vulnerable to further declines.

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